Just a couple days after the second of three presidential debates, Emory University’s Alan Abramowitz will deliver a presentation titled “Predicting the 2012 Presidential Election” as part of NIU’s Election 2012 Presidential Speaker Series at 6 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 18, in the Holmes Student Center Sky Room.
Abramowitz is a popular expert on national politics, polling and elections. His expertise includes election forecasting models, party realignment in the United States, congressional elections and the effects of political campaigns on the electorate.
“He’s going to come in and essentially explain to us who’s going to win the election in November. He’ll talk about how he goes about it and figures it all out,” says Matt Streb, chair of the NIU Political Science Department. “I think for political junkies, it will be a very interesting night because it really is a focus on the horse race as opposed to the substantive issues. I think it’s fascinating how these guys go about trying to predict the elections.”
Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University, and his expertise has been cited in the Washington Post, Atlanta Journal and Constitution and other national publications. His forthcoming book will look at polarization and its effect on U.S. government, but it is the expertise put forth in his 2004 book, Voice of the People: Elections and Voting in the United States that is of particular import this election season.
“You could ask me who I think is going to win the election, and I could tell you—based on a relatively educated hunch—who’s going to win, but I’m not necessarily crunching numbers and looking at forecasts,” Streb says. “That’s something that Dr. Abramowitz does, and he does it in a way that’s very accessible to a broad audience.”
The four-night Presidential Speaker Series concludes with an evening with former U.S. Speaker of the House J. Dennis Hastert, a Republican from west suburban Yorkville, and Bill Lipinski, a Democratic member of the U.S. House from 1983 to 2005, representing a Chicago district. Moderated by Professor Streb, the post-election talk will be held at 7:30 p.m. Thursday, Nov. 8, in the Event Room of NIU-Naperville, with bus rides provided from DeKalb to NIU students who would like to attend.
The event is open to the public. For more information, call (815) 753-1011.